The New Game: Information Arbitrage

KEY POINTS

• In today’s uncertain economic climate, investors are turning to unconventional and real-time data—like job postings, credit-card activity, and jewelry sales—to detect early signs of market shifts.

• Because traditional economic indicators often lag, top investors now prioritize alternative signals that offer quicker insight into consumer behavior, business sentiment, and spending trends.

• This heightened sensitivity to “sleepy numbers” reflects a broader reset in market psychology, where even niche datapoints can trigger significant asset moves amid persistent uncertainty.

👉 Bonus: Below you will find five ChatGPT prompts that you can use to develop your expertise in this area.

Elite athletes know that when the game speeds up, instincts must sharpen. You don’t have time to wait for clarity—you make the play while others hesitate. That same mindset now defines high-level investing and entrepreneurship. With global markets twitching at every economic whisper, today’s best investors don’t wait for the official score—they watch the warm-up tape, read the room, and move early. In 2025, the economic playbook is fragmenting: traditional indicators lag, central banks are cautious, and volatility is the new norm. That’s why some of the savviest investors are now studying job listings, credit-card data, and jewelry sales—because in an uncertain economy, small signals speak loudest.

In today’s markets, professional investors are pushing beyond traditional data—like inflation or unemployment rates—and diving into obscure signals: job postings on Indeed, diamond jewelry sales, auto-loan applications, even the Federal Reserve’s rarely read Beige Book. What was once “sleepy data” is now gold for decision-makers seeking to get ahead of market turns.

For elite athletes turned investors or entrepreneurs, the message is clear: the playing field is shifting, and instincts must evolve. The best don’t just wait for headlines—they build a system that senses the undercurrents before the wave hits.

Translating Athletic Discipline Into Investment Strategy

The discipline that drives high performance on the field is also the foundation of smart investment. But it’s not just about focus or effort—it’s about systems. Winning teams don’t rely on gut feeling; they rely on structured routines, layered analysis, and rapid feedback loops.

In today’s jittery financial landscape, those routines now include scanning "Tier B and C" data—information that may not make CNBC, but can point to turning points before consensus forms. Just as game film reveals subtle shifts in an opponent’s tactics, economic micro-signals can reveal when consumer confidence is slipping, when hiring is slowing, or when capital spending is being deferred. “The hard data is lagged, because it’s higher quality,” strategist George Pearkes at Bespoke Investment Group said. “So if you’re trying to catch an inflection point, you would expect those alternative data sets to reflect what’s going on faster.”

Take the recent surge in market sensitivity to restaurant demand, housing starts, or job-listing platforms. These inputs aren’t headline grabbers—but they’re predictive. Investors who saw home-building data strengthen reacted quickly as yields spiked and equities rallied. Inaction, on the other hand, was punished.

The takeaway for athletes building portfolios or startups? Build a decision system that doesn’t just react to obvious news, but listens to subtle shifts. Equip your team with analysts, advisors, or tools that track beneath the surface. Trust the data, not just the buzz.

Learning to Love Uncertainty

As any competitor knows, pressure reveals character. And right now, the markets are under pressure. Firms are delaying hiring. Capital expenditures are on pause. Business leaders are nervous. And investors? They’re not just edgy—they’re hypersensitive. “A healthy market doesn’t pay attention to the ISM reports or the beige book,” Larry Tentarelli, chief technical strategist at the Blue Chip Daily Trend Report recently said. “The market right now is overacting to almost every piece of data that’s coming out.”

In one sign of how the scrutiny has intensified, investors welcomed an uptick in retail sales earlier this month, with S&P 500 futures gaining more than 1% in the hour following the report. The previous month’s data, in contrast, provoked little evident market reaction, with futures holding steady despite disappointing numbers.

This heightened sensitivity creates two things: risk and opportunity. According to Que Nguyen, chief investment officer at Research Affiliates, 2025 has upended the backdrop. “We’re seeing a complete reset,” Que said. “Businesses are worried. They’re delaying hiring. They’re delaying [capital expenditure]. The markets are, therefore, scrutinizing things a lot more carefully.”

Bottom line, don’t panic when markets swing. And don’t anchor on legacy strategies. The winners in today’s business world are those who—like elite athletes—adapt faster than the opposition.

Obsession with Inputs, Not Outcomes

Here’s a crucial shift: today’s best investors aren’t fixated on GDP reports or earnings beats. They’re focused on inputs. They ask: What are people doing before it shows up in the official numbers?

Bespoke Investment Group, for example, tracked auto-loan pessimism in the New York Fed’s Credit Access Survey before it hit the broader economic indicators. José Torres of Interactive Brokers is watching Indeed.com job listings instead of waiting for lagging federal reports. Citi is watching Signet Jewelers—not because of diamonds, but because a spike in jewelry sales (at diamond jewelry giant Signet) might mean consumers are still ready to spend.

The lesson? Don’t wait for quarterly statements or government reports. Think like a coach looking at training metrics, not just game-day scores. Are your customers opening emails? Is conversion dropping on Tuesdays? Are warehouse orders stalling? In sport, early indicators prevent injury. In business, they prevent loss—or signal an opportunity to sprint.

Frameworks, Not Forecasts

Forecasts are seductive. But they’re often wrong. Elite investors and founders now prefer frameworks. Instead of trying to guess what will happen, they build models to respond when it happens.

This approach mirrors what elite athletes know: don’t predict the exact play your opponent will run—train to recognize the formation, read the cues, and respond fast. In business, that might mean building cash reserves to deploy during market dips. Or setting up alerts when retail behavior turns sharply. Or creating tiered hiring plans depending on different consumer sentiment levels.

In today’s volatile environment, don’t tie your strategy to a single bet. Build optionality into your business and investments. Give yourself room to adjust. And revisit your framework monthly—not yearly.

Potential Action Playbook for Athlete-Investors

1. Read the Unread: Make it a practice to track non-traditional signals—job boards, niche consumer surveys, regional Fed reports. These can offer an edge when consensus data lags.

2. Build a Micro-Data Dashboard: Invest in tools that monitor operational KPIs that matter to your business or portfolio.

3. Stay Agile, Not Anchored: Avoid clinging to strategies that worked in boom years. If top firms are pausing hiring and cutting capex, you should assess exposure accordingly.

4. Invest in Pattern Recognition: Just as you study game tape, study market behaviors over time. What preceded major market rebounds or corrections? Build a playbook for how to act—not just react.

5. Get Comfortable with Complexity: Don’t expect one data point to give you the answer. Layer signals. Cross-check them. And decide with confidence—backed by structure.

5 PROMPTS THAT ATHLETES CAN USE TO DEVELOP AND BUILD EXPERTISE

• Act like a data-driven investment strategist. What are five unconventional or real-time economic indicators I should track to get early insight into market shifts—especially as a founder or private investor?

• Give me a framework for building a simple dashboard that includes both traditional and alternative economic indicators to help guide business and investment decisions.

• In volatile markets where traditional data lags, what’s the best way to combine ‘sleepy’ indicators like job listings, credit-card activity, or restaurant demand into a fast-response decision-making system?

• Act as a macroeconomic coach for an athlete-turned-investor: How can I develop instincts to spot inflection points early—before official reports confirm the trend?

• What’s a weekly routine I can follow as a busy athlete-entrepreneur to stay ahead of economic signals that impact fundraising, customer demand, and asset values?

👉 Check ChampionsChat GPT for your prompts.

Closing Thought: The Mindset Edge

You’ve spent a career mastering chaos, staying composed in front of thousands, and turning pressure into performance. That edge doesn’t vanish when you enter the boardroom—it multiplies. The volatility in today’s market isn’t a threat; it’s an opportunity for those who know how to read the field before others do. Markets today reward the entrepreneur and investor who can read subtle cues, stay calm under duress, and act before the crowd.

What separates elite athlete-investors from the rest is not just access or ambition—it’s their ability to apply focus, discipline, and high-performance thinking to decision-making. Now is the time to stop playing defense with your capital. Build your own dashboard. Tune into the offbeat signals. Surround yourself with sharp analysts, just as you would with top coaches. If you treat business and investing as seriously as you treated your sport, you won't just compete—you’ll dominate.

The economy may be unpredictable, but your edge is built for that. Don’t just watch the game. Lead it.

👇

I really appreciate you reading my note today.

Have a great day,

Irg

Irg’s work is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as legal, business, investment, or tax advice. You should always do your own research and consult advisors on these subjects. This work may feature assets and entities in which the author has invested.

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